More Bad News For Harris

The prediction markets say she will lose

Photo by whoislimos on Unsplash

I just discovered something new (to me). There are platforms where you can bet on the outcome of the election. Collectively, they are known as “prediction markets.” A lovely euphemism if you ask me. People on Wall Street, naturally, feel that the prediction markets are much more accurate than polls. Academics agree.

Here’s their argument. These markets reflect breaking news events such as debates and attempted assassinations much faster than the polls. According to Thomas Miller, a professor of data science at Northwestern University, “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd.”

I have to say that this is the first time anyone has ever described the MAGA crowd with the word “wisdom.”

The other side of the coin, of course, is that it is possible to sway the markets by placing big bets on one candidate or the other, much like traders who buy up huge blocks of stocks or, alternatively, short stocks in an effort to influence the price of the stocks.

So, whether you are a believer or not, here is what the prediction markets are saying about the election:

Kalshi — Trump 55% chance of winning versus Harris 45% chance of winning